Add Hank Paulson to the Bottom Callers Casualty List

The latest victim of calling the housing bottom is Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. It's a real shame too because I really do like Hank. But, earlier today Paulson repeated comments he made way back in April:

"In terms of looking at housing, most of us believe that it's at or near the bottom," he told Reuters. "It's had a significant impact on the economy. No one is forecasting when, with any degree of clarity, that the upturn is going to come other than it's at or near the bottom."

Well, its been 3 months since April and there hasn't been a single good data point on the housing market other than the strong employment numbers. In fact the crucial numbers like excess inventory and prices are still looking worse and worse. Check out this graph below which shows excess inventory and housing starts (click to enlarge).

Basically, until inventory drops housing starts will probably continue to fall which puts increased downward pressure on prices and GDP. If you ask me calling the bottom of home prices now could pose a serious threat to the integrity of one's professional opinion. I know I wouldn't do it! But of course I'm in a win-win position. If I'm right, I'll be right, which is gratifying. If I'm wrong, and housing is at the bottom then that is great for the economy, great for all you homeowners and great for all of our investments! (Hat Tip: Calculated Risk)