The November Case Shiller home price index data was released today and the numbers confirmed the acceleration in home price declines we first witnessed in the median price indexes. While I think its safe to say that no one thought these numbers would be pretty, I imagine few thought we would see 2% declines across the board:
According to my calculations San Diego is now down 16.3% from its peak in November of 2005. The 10 City Composite is down 9.4% since its peak in June 2006 and the 20 City Composite is down 8.6% since its peak in July 2006. Trillions of dollars of home equity have already been lost and price declines are not showing any signs of slowing.
When you break this data down into tiers and you adjust the numbers for inflation the data gets even more depressing. In San Diego the real price of "low-priced" homes (its all relative because for San Diego a $446,000 home is considered low-priced) has fallen by nearly 30% since its peak:
Because this post has been fairly depressing up to this point I figured I would take the first graph and invert it so that it "looks" like home prices are actually going up. I have found that charts that show prices going up and to the right generally make people very happy. So here goes:
Okay maybe that didn't work for anyone else, but it brought a smile to my face . . . .
The Chargers have overcome a miserable 1-3 start to lock up the AFC West. One of the biggest stories of the year has been the rise of Antonio Cromartie, a second year defensive back who has really hit his stride. In his 11 starts he has ten interceptions, setting the single season interception mark for the Chargers. Perhaps more impressively, he has 3 more interceptions than any other player in the league and more interceptions than the entire Pittsburgh Steelers even though he has played 3 less games than everybody else. Part of that story is the amazing game Cromartie had against Peyton Manning, arguably one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. In that game Cromartie had 3 interceptions in the first half, and had what is quite possibly the most athletic interception I have ever seen:
Despite being left off of the Pro Bowl ballot Cromartie was named to the Pro Bowl roster. All this from a guy who didn't play football for most of his last year in college due to a knee injury and as a result was largely unknown. Not too shabby . . . :
I am so glad I don't own a condo in downtown San Diego. But from the looks of things now is not the time to start buying. I'm guessing late 2011- early 2012 should be just about right. Yes, you are seeing that correctly, that is 20+ lockboxes in the Grande. All told 7.5% of the building is on sale (33/442) and that is a building that is less than 1/3 owner-occupied. If that isn't a bearish indicator . . . . :
San Diego is experiencing some horrible fires today. In fact you can actually see the huge smoke plumes from satellite images (right). Hundreds of homes have burned already in a firestorm that has reminded many of the devastating Cedar fire in San Diego 3 years ago. The difference this time is that there are actually between 6 and 8 fires across the county and the high winds and Santa Ana conditions that provoked these fires are due to stick around for a few more days. The bottom line is that there are simply not enough firefighters to fight these fires. The vast majority of the firefighters are spending their time helping the 250,000 evacuees flee their homes.
Please keep San Diego in your prayers over the next few days.
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According to my calculations San Diego is now down 16.3% from its peak in November of 2005. The 10 City Composite is down 9.4% since its peak in June 2006 and the 20 City Composite is down 8.6% since its peak in July 2006. Trillions of dollars of home equity have already been lost and price declines are not showing any signs of slowing.
