Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Recessions, Corrections and Bears (Oh My)

  1. The probability of a US recession in 2008 continues to rise with Intrade putting the probability at 47%. Goldman puts those odds at between 40-45%.Meanwhile Former Secretary of the Treasury (and former Harvard President) Larry Summers thinks a recession is 'likely':
  2. But, usually we don't know about a recession until after it is over:
  3. The US market entered correction territory (10% downturn) for the first time since11/02-3/03:
  4. The Shanghai stock market officially entered a bear market (20% downturn):

In such a market environment, having lower volatility assets in your portfolio is incredibly valuable. We continue to be optimistic about the growth story of some of our key stocks and about the fundamental value of an Endowment style asset allocation model.

Hat Tips: Bespoke, Ticker Sense

Posted by The La Jolla Guy at 10:38 AM

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