Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Intrade Predictions: Rate Cut, Hillary, Guiliani

The prediction market at Intrade is currently predicting another fed rate cut at the December 11th meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:

Intrade is also still predicting that Hillary Clinton (71%) will face Rudy Guiliani (45%) in the presidential election . . . and win (49%-18%):


The only thing that scares me about these contracts on InTrade is that due to relatively thin trading their exists the possibility that these results could be manipulated by an overzealous campaign. The value of manipulating these numbers is very clear. Just go to Google News and type in Hillary and the word Intrade. You will find literally hundreds of articles from newspapers around the country referencing these figures. The value of that kind of PR could be huge for a campaign with an extra couple hundred thousand dollars in their coffers.

There are already some rumors circulating that Obama's poor performance on Intrade is due to an as yet undiscovered scandal.

Posted by The La Jolla Guy at 3:11 PM

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