Grantham, Recession, Case Shiller, Oh My

1. If you follow the markets and consider yourself a long-term investor, you must read Jeremy Grantham's quarterly newsletters. The most recent one was just posted today, so head on over to www.gmo.com and read it in its entirety. He has some interesting thoughts on the Fed, the Presidential Cycle and Bubbles. He included these great graph de-trended graphs of the S&P 500. Be careful with these graphs though, don't show them to a bull for there is a high likelihood that he/she will laugh in your face and call Grantham a "perma-bear":

2. Is a recession by any other name still a recession?


3. The next round of Case Shiller numbers are due out next week. If February's median price numbers (-5.7% for San Diego single family homes) are any indication, the February Case Shiller numbers aren't going to be pretty. Here are the Case Shiller numbers through January:


The size-adjusted Case Shiller indices reveal a potentially more interesting trend. In San Diego, it is the low end of the market that is bearing the brunt of this real estate bear market. Low Tier homes are off 28% since peak, while high tier homes are only down 14%.


Have a great weekend!